Train Gamers Association Logo 

Back

The TGG


Interesting Percentages

Summer 1996/Vol 3, no 2


In a 4 player game, with players of equal skill, you have a 25% chance of winning or a 75% chance of not placing first. If you play three games you have, 0.75 x 0.75 x 0.75 or 42% chance of not placing first. ie a 58% chance of placing first at least once. Now if you play 3 games in 4 catagories you will have 0.58 x 0.58 x 0.58 x 0.58 or an 11% chance of scoring 4 first places or 12.x Puffing Billy points. If you have 100 people play 12 games at a convention like origins, you should get 11 people scoring 12 pts. This shows why so many people score 12 Puffing Billy points at a major convention. By the way if a player incearses the number of games played to 16 he will have a 15% chance of scoring 12 Puffing Billy points. However quality, in this case, does beat quantity. Inceasing ones chance of winning, a single game from 25% to 33% increases the probablity of scoring 12 Puffing Billy points to 25%.

Chance of
winning Total number of games played in
single 4 8 12 16
game
10% 0.0% 0.1% 0.5% 1.4%
15% 0.1% 0.6% 2.2% 5.2%
20% 0.2% 1.7% 5.7% 12.2% - Average 5 player game
25% 0.4% 3.7% 11.2% 21.8% - Average 4 player game
30% 0.8% 6.8% 18.6% 33.3%
33% 1.2% 9.5% 24.5% 41.5% - Average 3 player game
35% 1.5% 11.1% 25.7% 45.5%
40% 2.6% 16.8% 37.8% 57.4%
45% 4.1% 23.7% 48.3% 68.1%
50% 6.3% 31.6% 58.6% 77.2%

Yes quality does beat quantity

These statistics were compiled by Mike Massullo, a TGA member and a noted Vancouver Shark train gamer.

 


Home | The Manifest | All Aboard | Train Gamers Gazette
The Puffing Billy | RailCon | The Switchyard | Union Station

Questions or comments? Email tgatrains@aol.com.

 

 

 

The contents of this Web Site are copyright © 1998 by The Train Gamers Association, Inc. All rights reserved. Designed by Scott Lininger. Last modified Tuesday, 16-Jun-1998 12:39:45 CDT .